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Who will be the No 2 pick in the draft?
Barring a gas mask situation, we know who will be the No 1 overall pick in the draft. The Raiders need a viable long-term solution at quarterback after Geno Smith flamed out last year. Indiana’s Fernando Mendoza, the Heisman Trophy winner and national champion, is the top quarterback on the board and will be the first named called on 23 April. After Mendoza, the real intrigue begins.
The Jets hold the second pick. There isn’t another quarterback in consideration to land in the top 10, giving the Jets their pick of any of the dynamic defensive players at the top of the class. The names in consideration: Ohio State’s Arvell Reese and Caleb Downs, Miami’s Rueben Bain Jr and Texas Tech’s David Bailey.
The Jets could veer against consensus and look at a player from the bloated receiver class or trade out of the pick. But the selection is likely to come from one of those four names. In a thin class, all four are certified blue-chippers, but they aren’t without flaws.
Reese is the most dynamic player among the quartet. A hybrid linebacker/edge-rusher, Reese moves differently. He has the physical tools to make a Micah Parsons or Abdul Carter-like transition to the edge full-time, but he played his best ball in college when flying around as a linebacker. In the modern game, with mobile, morphing defenses, he can be a defensive weapon regardless of where he lines up. But if the Jets view him exclusively as a linebacker, they will probably skip over Reese for an out-and-out pass rusher. After all, Reese wasn’t even the best linebacker on his own college team.
Downs, a safety, will force a similar decision. Pound for pound, he’s the best player in the draft. Yet even as the sport has evolved to emphasize hybrid defenders, safeties have been diminished in the draft. Maybe the impact of Kyle Hamilton, Jalen Pitre and Brian Branch will shift the Jets’ thinking. But if Downs is selected No 2 overall, it would be the highest draft slot for a safety since Eric Turner went second in 1991.
Bailey and Bain fit the traditional mold. They’re explosive edge-rushers with unteachable first-step speed. Bailey’s game is based on juice, but he’s unrefined as a pass rusher. Bain plays with more savvy and power, a requirement at the next level. But he has found himself caught up in the now-annual debate about arm length.
The Jets’ choice is whether to take a better player at what executives consider a non-premium position, bank on Reese and figure out his position later, or bet on Bailey or Bain to become dominant pass rushers.
Where will Malik Willis sign?
Willis is the most fascinating free agent available this cycle. He has started just three games in the past two seasons and only six games in his four-year career. But he’s expected to earn at least $30m a year when free agency opens next week.
Every quarterback-needy team is circling. After the successful career resurrections of Sam Darnold, Baker Mayfield and Daniel Jones, Willis is the next man up. The former third-round pick of the Titans entered the NFL as an effective runner but undercooked as a passer. But over the last two seasons, as Green Bay’s backup QB, Willis has shown incredible growth. As a pure runner, Willis remains as explosive as any quarterback in the league. But he’s also shown development as a passer when asked to fill in for Jordan Love. Willis has the arm talent to hit every throw, ripping heaters down the field and applying touch everywhere else. Where he was once panicked in the pocket, he now shows poise. It hasn’t been easy work, either. Willis has operated Matt LaFleur’s offense, one of the most complex systems in the league, without skipping a beat.
Still, it’s a tiny sample size; Willis has thrown fewer than 100 attempts in the past two seasons combined and has only six career passing touchdowns. But the flashes have been jaw-dropping. Rarely are 26-year-old, potential franchise starters available on the open market. And that should be enough to earn him a $100m contract. He could be the next Matt Flynn, but teams will bet on his upside, particularly given this year’s ropey quarterback draft.
The Cardinals, Dolphins and Steelers are the frontrunners. New Cardinals head coach Mike LaFleur is the brother of Packers head coach Matt LaFleur. There would be schematic continuity for Willis, and the junior LaFleur will have insider intel on the quarterback’s development. The Dolphins’ new brain trust is filled with former Packers, too. General manager Jon-Eric Sullivan and head coach Jeff Hafley came over from Green Bay this offseason. They have a relationship with Willis and will be aware of how much of his growth was real and how much was manufactured by the Packers’ coaching staff. But the Dolphins will have to figure out Tua Tagovailoa’s contract situation before they can make a move, with the team looking at $90m in dead money if they release their former first-round pick.
The Steelers should be at the front of the queue. They have a young, talented offensive line and more firepower than they could show with Aaron Rodgers at the helm last year. Bringing back Rodgers is the current, uninspiring plan. Allowing Rodgers to retire and hoping Willis is the real deal is the best path forward. Mike McCarthy, for all his faults as a head coach, is an outstanding quarterback developer. You don’t hire him to try to recapture Rodgers’ magic at 42; you hire him to try to unlock the next Rodgers.
The quarterback carousel
Willis will be the first domino to fall. But there will be plenty of big names and reclamation projects on the market. Kirk Cousins is already looking for work. The Cardinals will release Kyler Murray. Tagovailoa is out in Miami. Smith could still have a final act in him. With a watered-down draft class, all four will have a shot at starting somewhere next season.
The most intriguing candidate, though, is Anthony Richardson. With the Colts set to franchise tag and extend Jones, Richardson, the team’s former first-round pick, is available for a buy-low trade.
The 6ft 4in, 244lbs Richardson is uber-athletic, but he has struggled to find consistency as a passer, command an NFL offense, or stay healthy. He has missed a chunk of time in the pros to injuries, including fracturing his orbital bone last season, which has hampered his development.
The Vikings make the most sense for Richardson. Head coach Kevin O’Connell was a fan when Richardson was coming out of the draft, and made a point to check in with him last preseason after he lost his starting job to Jones. “Remember something: you’re a bad dude,” O’Connell told Richardson. “And you’re gonna start in this league a long time. I still believe in you.”
Minnesota have the means, the need and the right environment to find out if Richardson can ever become a competent starter. They may decide to bring in an old hand like Cousins to compete with, or back up, JJ McCarthy. But if they have already decided McCarthy isn’t the long-term answer, throwing a dart at Richardson would be smart.
Prepare for a flurry of trades
This season’s free-agent class is light on star talent and heavy on starters. It’s similar to the draft class, which is deep at certain positions but lacks high-wattage talent.
Immediate gamechangers will have to come via trades. Last year, it was Micah Parsons. This year, the top name is Maxx Crosby. The Raiders have publicly said they’re keen to keep Crosby, but the 28-year-old has told the team he wants out. The stumbling block is the asking price. The trades of Parsons and Quinnen Williams over the past year have set the threshold: teams want multiple draft picks and a starting-caliber player in return. Who is willing to stump up the cost?
Money won’t be an obstacle, but one potential hiccup could be Crosby’s age. He will only turn 29 next season, but 30 is the age when pass rushers start to decline. And Crosby has logged 300 more snaps than any other pass rusher in the league since 2021. Crosby is at his peak right now, but teams may be queasy about handing over multiple draft picks for a player who’s hitting the end of his prime.
The Buccaneers, Patriots, 49ers and Bears are the favorites. Finding a price that works for both parties is tricky, though. The Bucs, for example, could offer a first-round pick, a third-rounder, and one of Calijah Kancey or Luke Goedeke. But the Niners and Patriots cannot add similar players to any package, which would force them to offer two first-round picks. Crosby is one of the best pass rushers in the league. He is worth the price. But the Patriots have had so many recent draft misfires that they cannot afford to stump up multiple first-round picks for another expensive veteran.
After Crosby, all eyes are on AJ Brown. Brown is coming off a strange season with the Eagles. There was internal tension all year. Snap by snap, you didn’t know what you were getting. Sometimes he looked like the superstar receiver he is. Other times, he looked as if he’d rather be anywhere else. Philly are saying all the right things in public about keeping Brown, but it seems clear his time with the Eagles is over.
Brown will be 29 when the new season starts, and is under contract for three more years. If the Eagles trade him away this offseason, they will be taking on $40m in dead money. That has put their asking price somewhere around a first-round pick plus a young player. Thanks to his connection with Mike Vrabel, New England have consistently been rumored as Brown’s preferred destination. If not the Patriots, then the Chiefs and Bills are potential landing spots. Both contenders can probably stomach the heavy asking price to pair an All-Pro receiver with Patrick Mahomes or Josh Allen.
And it’s not just Crosby and Brown. DJ Moore, Brian Thomas Jr, Mac Jones, Nick Herbig, Kayvon Thibodeaux and Trent McDuffie could all be on the move. Given who is available in free agency, it’s going to be a juicy trade market.
