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10 hours ago
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The Premier League title race might be as good as over but the battle for European places is as competitive and exciting as ever, with as many as 13 teams in with a chance of qualifying.
A number of factors have combined to make it so open. The Champions League and Europa League are bigger since the introduction of the league phase, and there is a third European competition, the Conference League. The strength of the Premier League means an English winner of any competition will add to the number of teams in Europe next season. Mid-table in the Premier League is also incredibly bunched.
Just seven points separate Liverpool in fifth place and Bournemouth in 13th. It’s the smallest gap between fifth and 13th at the start of April since the first Premier League season in 1992-93, when just four points separated Sheffield Wednesday in fifth and Southampton in 13th. Meanwhile, just four points separate seventh and 13th, the second-lowest gap between those positions in Premier League history at this stage.
Nine English teams played in Europe this season – six in the Champions League, two in the Europa League and one in the Conference League. There could be even more next season. So, what are the possibilities?
Champions League
Two extra Champions League spots are available for leagues whose teams perform best in Europe in the previous season, based on Uefa’s complicated points system. The Premier League is all but certain to earn one of them (as it did last season) given that five of its nine European participants are still in their respective competitions: Arsenal and Liverpool in the Champions League, Nottingham Forest and Aston Villa in the Europa League, and Crystal Palace in the Conference League.
There is also the possibility of two more Champions League spots for English clubs, but that would require excellent results in Europe and poor form domestically from Liverpool and Aston Villa. They would need to win their respective European competitions and finish outside the Premier League’s top five (assuming the top five qualify for the Champions League). If they both do so, it would mean seven English teams in the Champions League next season. Nottingham Forest could also qualify for the Champions League by winning the Europa League.
Europa League
There are at least two spots for English teams. If the top five Premier League sides qualify for the Champions League, the team that finishes sixth and the winners of the FA Cup will be in the Europa League.
However, if Arsenal, Manchester City, Chelsea or Liverpool win the FA Cup – which looks very likely – and they finish in a league position that would be enough to qualify for either the Champions League or Europa League (so, the top six), their spot in the Europa League will go to the next-highest ranked team in the Premier League who have not already otherwise qualified for Europe.
If, alongside the above, neither Liverpool nor Villa win a European competition while finishing outside the top five, this Europa League spot would go to the seventh-placed team in the Premier League. If Liverpool or Villa are victorious in Europe while also finishing outside the top five, the team that finishes eighth in the Premier League will qualify for the Europa League. If both of them win their European competition and finish outside the top five, the teams that finish in eighth and ninth will qualify for the Europa League.
Meanwhile, if Crystal Palace win the Conference League while finishing outside the top six in the Premier League, they will enter the Europa League next season.
Conference League
Manchester City earned a place in the Conference League by winning the League Cup, but will finish in the top six of the league so their spot passes down to the highest-placed team that have not already qualified for Europe.
Depending who wins the FA Cup and how many extra spots are earned in the Champions League by Liverpool or Villa, the team that finishes eighth, ninth, or 10th in the Premier League could qualify for the Conference League.
So 11 English teams could play in Europe?
In short: yes. That would require Liverpool, Aston Villa and Crystal Palace to win their respective European competitions while also finishing outside the top five – for Liverpool and Villa – or the top six – for Palace. That would leave the 11-club split as follows: seven for the Champions League, three for the Europa League and one for the Conference League. It’s extremely unlikely.
Realistically, how many will make it?
Liverpool are unlikely to win the Champions League, and they are also more likely to finish in the top five than not. Aston Villa are favourites to win the Europa League but are even less likely to finish outside the top five than Liverpool. Palace are the favourites to win the Conference League, but it’s still more likely that they won’t win it.
With all that in mind, it is more probable that no extra places are earned because English teams have won their continental competitions while finishing outside the qualifying positions in the Premier League.
However, it is likely that five English teams will qualify for the Champions League and a Europa League spot will go to the team finishing in seventh because a top-six team wins the FA Cup.
That would mean the teams finishing in the top eight in the Premier League this season qualify for Europe. Here are the percentage chances of each team finishing in each position, according to the most recent batch of 10,000 simulations of the rest of the season by the Opta supercomputer.
Brighton are the most likely team outside the current top seven to sneak into eighth, doing so in 16.8% of those simulations, while Brentford are looking good value to finish seventh.
Everton have a good chance of getting into Europe, while Fulham, Newcastle, Sunderland and even Bournemouth are not out of the race. Crystal Palace’s best hopes of returning to Europe lie in winning the Conference League, but they also have a chance of a top-eight finish in the league.
All of those teams should go into the remainder of the season hoping Liverpool and Aston Villa secure European glory while falling away in the league. If both do so and Palace also win the Conference League, the majority of teams in the Premier League next season will also be competing in Europe.
This is an article by Opta Analyst
