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9 hours ago
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Most England fans will remember the classic final scene in The Italian Job. The bus precariously balanced on the edge of a precipice, the golden loot slipping away. One false move and it’s curtains. Welcome to this weekend’s sequel with Steve Borthwick and his under-pressure England players replacing Michael Caine – “Hang on a minute, lads, I’ve got a great idea” – and the rest of the original film’s cast.
Talk about the self-preservation society. England’s recent car-crash defeats by Scotland and Ireland were pretty grim but there have been any number of precedents over the years. What has never materialised in 32 previous meetings dating back 35 years is a loss to Italy. If that sequence ends on Saturday it really would be a new reputational low
because defeat in the 70,000-capacity Stadio Olimpico used to be a risk associated only with lesser mortals.
Italy have been making admirably positive strides under the smart Gonzalo Quesada but, normally, England would still fancy preserving the status quo. Particularly against a team that has so far scored the fewest tries in this year’s Six Nations and were comfortably beaten 47-24 in London this time last year.
And now? All bets are off. This in itself is a sign of the times, even if the Italians have come close once or twice. Those of us present in Huddersfield in 1998 briefly felt we could be watching a triangular-shaped pizza slice of history under Clive Woodward until Will Greenwood shinned the ball through and regathered to score a late try that saved England’s prosciutto in a scrappy 23-15 victory. Win A World Cup? read one sceptical headline the following morning. This Lot Couldn’t Win A Raffle.
So much for that prediction but, once again, the stakes are mounting for all involved. Within the camp, rightly or wrongly, there is still a feeling they are not a million miles away, victims only of costly early misjudgments in their last two outings. What if George Ford had nailed those kicks to the corner? If that ball hadn’t bobbled out of Ellis Genge’s hands close to his own line at Murrayfield? If England had been able to keep 15 players on the field for longer?
Unfortunately the age-old holy trinity of excuses – shoulda, woulda, coulda – offers only limited succour in professional sport. The phrase: “We didn’t take our opportunities” also belongs right up there alongside the most self-defeating of post-match observations. Guys, surely that’s the game? Deep down, England will also know that atonement often depends on how effectively the opposition perform.
So let’s not beat around the sculpted Villa Borghese bushes. Even a significantly more accurate English performance may be insufficient if their hosts rise to the occasion and enjoy a touch more luck themselves. Without a debatable yellow card and a couple of tight officiating decisions in Dublin, the Azzurri could easily have added a defeat of Ireland to their victory over Scotland in round one.
They also pose some increasingly pertinent questions. What if the Italian scrum, spearheaded by tighthead Simone Ferrari, prospers again and their excellent lineout does likewise? And if Tommaso Menoncello and Ignacio Brex start pouring through a flat-footed midfield? If those are all ticked off the bingo sheet inside the first 20 minutes, it could be another awkward afternoon for the visitors.
The pre-match anthems, in that context, will also be instructive. Captain Michele Lamaro and his team always belt out Fratelli d’Italia with huge pride but this time, crucially, their chests will be similarly full of surging self-belief. England will need to ensure they are equally pumped up, as opposed to resembling white-coated lab assistants clocking in for another routine shift.
Of course too much emotion and desire can sometimes be counterproductive. But twice in succession now England have been swamped by a wave of passion, first at Murrayfield and then courtesy of Andy Farrell’s motivational powers against Ireland. On both occasions they were swept away before they could settle. Once is unfortunate, twice is careless, thrice would be unforgivable.
A defining weekend awaits, therefore, for Borthwick and his heavily rotated side. A flurry of nine starting personnel changes is a Six Nations record but bedding-in time is an unavailable luxury. Fin Smith, Seb Atkinson and Tommy Freeman will need to gel swiftly as a 10-12-13 combo with and without the ball, while much also rests on the shoulders of Bath’s captain Ben Spencer, replacing the injured Alex Mitchell at scrum-half.
But what seismic impact can any of the above realistically make if England’s pack fails to roar, the set piece creaks or the back row are stymied? The breakdown battle is set to be pivotal but England will also need ball carriers capable of generating gainline momentum. Alex Coles, so influential for Northampton, could be an important figure but seasoned British & Irish Lions like Genge, Maro Itoje and Tom Curry will also want to regain their spark.
And if not? The Rugby Football Union can gloss over defeats by local rivals or global powerhouses but losing to Italy is a different kettle of pesce. Another nagging plotline to consider is that Italy could yet be England’s last-16 opponents at next year’s World Cup. Lose now and the psychology of that scenario shifts appreciably. Particularly if England go down in another screaming heap. At which point, with France in Paris to come, things really could turn ugly.
In that event the RFU will doubtless re-emphasise the team’s recent 12-Test winning streak and the lessons of past campaigns. It is indeed true that England finished fifth in the 2018 Six Nations under Eddie Jones and went on to reach the World Cup final the following year. In 2023 they trailed in fourth yet lost by only a point to the reigning global champions South Africa in the semi-final.
At stake right here and now, though, is something slightly different. It is not so much the rat-a-tat losses that are concerning former internationals and supporters alike but the manner of them. As Borthwick and Jamie George have made clear, no team in the world can hope to win big games without the necessary fight and collective work-rate.
Blast Italy out of the game early, as Ireland and Scotland did to them, and England can subsequently claim that reports of their demise were premature. But if the reality of their current situation fails to rouse them to another level of intensity, something really is awry. Stand by for a cliffhanger of a contest, unless a re-energised England take early control and blow the bloody doors off.
