Royal Ascot draw bias left too many with raw deal in otherwise stellar week

Big numbers were something of a theme at Royal Ascot this year. Aidan O’Brien became the first trainer to saddle 100 winners at the meeting when Scandinavia took the Gold Cup on Thursday. Attendances were up throughout the week leading up to Saturday’s annual sell-out, by an average of 3.5% and the high-numbered stalls carried all before them on the straight course, with one winner after another powering up to the line against the near-side rail.

There are always talking points after a meeting like Royal Ascot, where the occasion and competition are so intense that everything feels exaggerated. This time around, there was a team tactics debate on Tuesday, as Christophe Soumillon picked up an eight-day ban for riding Puerto Rico “in a manner to assist” Gstaad in the St James’s Palace Stakes, though the decision is subject to an appeal to be heard this week. There was a furore, too, after Juan Hernandez was allowed to weigh in again after an easy win on Bacio in the last race on Friday, having being light first time round.

But the clear advantage enjoyed towards the stands’ side on the straight course was apparent from day one. It was one of the few significant disappointments in an otherwise memorable week, with high-class performances from well-backed favourites such as Bow Echo, Ombudsman, Scandinavia and Venetian Sun.

Simon Crisford called it out before watching his gelding Jazl, a leading fancy for Bacio’s race on Friday, finish 27th and last behind the easy winner, who was drawn in stall 31. “The bias has been shocking and it’s really disappointing because you want to be drawn high,” he said. “It’s not right when you pay what you pay as an owner to come to Royal Ascot and not have a fair racing track.”

A fortnight ago, the British Horseracing Authority’s stewards deemed the Derby favourite a non-runner because he had a leg off the ground when the stalls opened and lost maybe a length or so as a result. At Ascot, though, dozens of runners had their chances compromised through no fault of their own, but because when the stall positions were drawn the computer said low.

The wide – and much-loved – variety of tracks in British Flat racing means punters are accustomed to dealing with draw biases. Low numbers at Chester and Beverley and high at Ripon are among the betting mantras many backers will learn at an early stage of their punting careers. But these are often a result of a course’s size or layout. The bias at Royal Ascot – the premier meeting of the year at British Flat racing’s showpiece track – was on the straight mile, with no obvious reason why one side or the other should be favoured and with a potential effect on 18 of the 35 races.

The crowds at Royal Ascot were up all week with the Saturday meeting a sell-out. Photograph: Henry Nicholls/AFP/Getty Images

The Britannia Handicap on Thursday, over the straight mile, was the most striking example. Thirty runners went to post and they split into two groups, 15 on each side of the track. The first 11 horses across the line were from the stands’ side group and nine of those were drawn 22 or above.

The draw played no part in Saturday’s feature, the six-furlong Queen Elizabeth II Jubilee Stakes, as the field came down the middle and the capacity crowd enjoyed a thrilling three-way photo-finish as Almeraq, at 25-1, edged out the big overseas contenders, Satono Reve and Joliestar, by a nose and a short-head.

On Saturday morning, Chris Stickels, Ascot’s clerk of the course, had accepted there was a problem. “We work very hard at providing as fair a track as we can,” he told Sky Sports Racing. “We study the data, we aerate it evenly, we irrigate evenly. Yes, it does seem that the high numbers have been winning, but let’s be honest, not much has raced on that far rail.

“I don’t think it would be disadvantageous to be in the middle of the track at all either, there were horses winning in the middle of the track yesterday. It wasn’t like everything on the stands rails was way in front of everything else.

“It doesn’t walk massively differently [on the opposite sides of the track], but the evidence has been that the high-drawn horses have been winning.”

Smart punters can turn a draw bias to their advantage over the course of a meeting and also take note of beaten runners whose performances can be marked up with an eye to backing them next time. Laureate Crown and Exclusive Code, first and second on the far side in the Britannia, are just two among plenty of examples.

It is also fair to acknowledge it has been the accepted betting wisdom for many years that the high stalls are the place to start when looking for a winner on the straight course, especially when the ground is riding fast. This time, though, there was scarcely any point going even halfway across the track in the search for a winner. While punters can factor a bias into their calculations, owners and trainers, as Crisford pointed out, do not have the same luxury.

The yearling market has been remarkably robust in the face of various economic upheavals in recent years and one of the key drivers that persuades the biggest owners to keep investing in bloodstock is the possibility of competing at Royal Ascot. While few will shed many tears for a billionaire whose seven-figure thoroughbred is drawn on the wrong side of the track, they are still capable of sensing when they are getting a raw deal and choosing to get their kicks – or race their horses – elsewhere.

It is more difficult, too, for Royal Ascot to sell itself as the undisputed pinnacle of Flat racing if so many of its races appear skewed towards runners on one side of the track.

Interestingly, Stickels also told Sky Sports Racing that “we did try and deal with that by trying to put a little bit more water on [the near side] through May, but we got to a stage where we felt it was even. It’s not easy to do because you’ve got to shut off one side and not another.”

A more determined effort may be necessary next year.