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11 hours ago
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The World Cup final will feature the champions of South America and Europe for the first time. Argentina and Spain sit first and second in Fifa’s world ranking of men’s international teams. Opta’s supercomputer rated Luis de la Fuente’s side as favourites to win the tournament, with their opponents on Sunday deemed fourth likeliest.
Both systems had England and France in their top four, suggesting the semi-finals featured the correct teams. But do the statistics from the World Cup indicate we have the best pair for the final?
Spain are unbeaten in 37 matches (excluding penalty shootouts) while Argentina have won their past 14 games. That is a reasonable starting point for justification, even before we dig into the data.
The teams are, unsurprisingly, among the leaders for expected goals, though both have benefited from penalties. Stripping those out and factoring in time played reveals several teams had better pro-rata records. No team that reached the quarter-finals outperformed their non-penalty xG per 90 minutes by more than Argentina though.
Given Spain’s defensive record, Argentina may need that trend to continue if they are to retain their crown. What Spain have achieved in protecting their goal should be talked about for years to come if they win their second World Cup.
Spain have conceded 2.15 expected goals, a miserly 0.31 per match. It is comfortably the best record and an elite level of defensive consistency over seven games. Five teams allowed their opponents more than 2.15 xG in their first match, with 41 having crossed that mark by the end of the group stage.
If this sounds like a significant advantage for Spain, it is not so clearcut. Argentina were the last of the other 47 teams to concede more than 2.15 xG , doing so when Yasser Ibrahim put Egypt 1-0 up in the last-16. The Argentinians can’t match Spain’s incredible defensive record, but no other team has kept a closer pace.
It seems unlikely set pieces will be a factor. These sides are among the best defences in dead-ball situations without having been especially strong in attack. Would you bet against Lionel Messi converting his second direct free-kick goal of the tournament though?
If that is unlikely, even for him, Messi has taken the most shots on either side (34, including two penalties). However, Lamine Yamal (23) and Mikel Oyarzabal (22, one penalty) are second and third respectively. While the former can be prone to firing at goal from poor locations, the latter has the best expected goals per shot average for either team (0.15).
Or at least he does for those with a shot sample of at least 10; Mikel Merino (0.35) and Lautaro Martínez (0.22) have higher figures and may have a vital role to play from the bench. Both are adept at profiting from big chances in key moments. With the teams being similarly strong, a substitute may well prove decisive.
Opta give Spain a 45% chance of winning in 90 minutes with Argentina rated as a 26% shot. The tournament data suggests it should be closer than their prediction implies.
