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Coulda. Shoulda. Woulda. The Wallabies are dark masters in the art of “what might’ve been”.
And they’ve done it again in season 2025, promising much but delivering only more riddles. The Rugby Championship was within reach this year and the All Blacks ripe for the taking. After blitzing South Africa in round one and storming home against Argentina in round three, the men in gold led the TRC. They had uncovered a band of rock star rugby talents and a style of play to win back lost fans and snap a 1792-day losing streak against New Zealand.
Instead, the Wallabies imploded, delivering arguably their most disappointing performance of the year with a 28-14 defeat in Perth consigning them to four wins and six losses for the home season. The trophy cabinet is empty yet again, Australia having yielded the Tom Richards Cup to the British & Irish Lions, the Nelson Mandela Plate to the Springboks, the Puma Trophy to Argentina and, after Saturday night’s loss to New Zealand, the Bledisloe Cup for a 23rd successive year. Their only silverware in 2025 is the humble Vuvale Bowl won against Fiji.
After a 6-7 win-loss record in 2024, head coach Joe Schmidt’s 2025 slate of 4-6 sinks him to 40%. Yes, those four victories were glorious – the last-gasp victories over Fiji and Argentina, the smashing of the Lions in game three and the epic of Ellis Park where – finding themselves 22-0 down after 17 minutes – the Wallabies torched the world champion Springboks 38-22. But despite all of New Zealand-born Schmidt’s insider knowledge, Australia is 0-4 to the All Blacks during his reign.
The 60-year-old is nearing the end of his tenure, with the five-Test overseas tour starting on 25 October his final sortie in charge of the squad. Schmidt will be lauded for rebuilding the Wallabies after they hit rock bottom at the 2023 World Cup. He blooded 16 debutantes in his first year in charge – the most in six decades – and re-drilled his squads in the non-negotiable disciplines of the game. His golden warriors have shown flair, character, courage and grit.
But in too many of the six defeats in 2025 the Wallabies have been their own worst enemies, starting slowly, leaking penalties, bungling chances, overplaying their hand and shooting themselves in the foot. Off the field, Rugby Australia sent the Wallabies into the Lions series badly underdone and then let lock Will Skelton and flyhalf James O’Connor fly back to club duties in Europe when both talismans needed to stick fast to reinforce a young TRC squad.
Moreover, the gaping hole at the heart of the squad – who plays in the crucial 9-10 attacking axis – remains unsolved, despite Schmidt trialling seven combinations this year. Desperate to back a young flyhalf, he has tried Noah Lolesio (25), Tom Lynagh (22), Tane Edmed (25) and Ben Donaldson (26). None has made the role their own. It leaves RA trying to woo back 2023 World Cup flyhalf Carter Gordon (24) from the NRL. Or breaking the glass (and bank) to go all-in on parachuting Nathan Cleary into the 15-man game from the Penrith Panthers.
It’s the devil at the crossroads. Australia remain mired in seventh in the IRB world rankings. That’s a big problem which threatens to get bigger in the next month. The Wallabies need a top-six seeding to head up one of the six four-team pools for the 2027 World Cup on home soil. Topping their group is critical to ensure they don’t meet defending champions South Africa or fellow heavyweights New Zealand, Ireland or France early in the 16-team knockout stages. To rise above Argentina in sixth place, the Wallabies need to win, win big and win away.
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Sadly, the upcoming Spring Tour is no stroll along the Seine. Mentor turned tormentor Eddie Jones has Japan humming and a likely ambush awaits when the Wallabies play the Brave Blossoms in the two nation’s historic first meeting in Tokyo. Thereafter, it’s a tough month of Sundays with Tests against England (ranked 5th in the world), Italy (10th, but victors in their last meeting with the Wallabies in 2022), Ireland (3rd) and France (4th) across November.
And all after a tough season in which stars fell in key positions. Fullback Tom Wright (knee), gun half Tate McDermott (hamstring) and James Hooper (retirement) will miss this tour. Tireless flanker Fraser McReight injured an ankle in Perth. Boom backrower Tom Hooper is heading to the UK and Taniela Tupou and Skelton are bound for France. NRL winger of the year Mark Nawaquanitawase has quit the Roosters to return to rugby. But when?
These wounded Wallabies need something special and they need it fast. They shoulda beaten the All Blacks, and coulda won the Rugby Championship, and woulda but for a lack of composure. Now they’re on the road, far from home and far from sure of their place in the rugby world. They have the players and the coach to make it happen and the performances to prove it. It’s time to transform the coulda, shoulda, wouldas into could, should and did.
