One million more UK homeowners set to face higher mortgages

By

Cost of living correspondent

A million more homeowners face higher mortgage bills than the Bank of England had previously expected due to the impact of the Iran war.

Just over five million homeowners should expect their monthly mortgage repayments to increase by the end of 2028, according to Bank forecasts.

That compared to four million projected by the Bank in December.

However, the Bank's Financial Stability Report said the hit would not be as hard as seen in recent years.

A typical owner-occupier rolling off a fixed rate in the next two years is likely to face an increase of £45 on their monthly mortgage bill, the Bank said, external. That compares to a typical rise of £120 for those getting a new deal between the end of 2022 and end of 2024.

However, 750,000 homeowners who are paying less than 3% interest on their current deal would be rolling off these products this year and would see an average increase of £170 per month in repayments, the Bank said.

More than eight in 10 mortgage customers have fixed-rate deals.

The interest rate on this kind of mortgage does not change until the deal expires, usually after two or five years, and a new one is chosen to replace it.

More than two million borrowers on a two-year fixed deal expiring by the end of 2028 were projected to remortgage close to their existing rate and see little change in repayments, the Bank said.

However, these borrowers were now unlikely to see repayments fall over coming years, as had been forecast prior to the Iran conflict.

The Iran war led to the closure of the key Strait of Hormuz shipping lane, typically responsible for around a fifth of global energy supplies.

That pushed up the cost of oil and gas, in turn driving up inflation and raising the prospect of central banks hiking interest rates.

These higher-than-expected interest rates were passed on to homeowners by banks, raising mortgage rates for first-time buyers and those refinancing.

The average two-year fixed rate jumped from 4.83% at the start of March to a peak of 5.90% on 12 April, according to the financial information service Moneyfacts. It has since dropped to 5.49%.

The report is the latest example of the challenging economic inheritance facing Andy Burnham, who is expected to take over from Sir Keir Starmer as Labour leader and prime minister this month.

Budget watchdog the Office for Budget Responsibility (OBR), external on Tuesday warned the public debt risks spiralling in the coming years.

The UK's public finances are in a "challenging" position, it said, with debt set to roughly triple to nearly 300% of GDP over the next 50 years without government action.

Its latest Fiscal Risks and Sustainability report also warned that "unsustainable fiscal outcomes that may not occur for some years are today's challenge not tomorrow's".

It said to keep debt at its 2030-31 levels - at 95% of GDP - would require spending to be cut by roughly the size of the entire education budget, or the equivalent to the money collected through corporation tax.

The Bank of England report, external says that lower income households, including renters, are likely to be more exposed to higher energy prices.

"They spend a larger share of their income on essentials, limiting their ability to adjust spending in response to higher prices," it said.

However, overall, the report suggested that household finances remained resilient "even in a challenging external environment".

Household debt remained low relative to historical averages.

Although some vulnerable, low-income households remained more exposed, it said debt was unlikely to lead to sharp reductions in buying by consumers.

Elsewhere in the report, the Bank said rapid advances in AI had led to heightened risks over cyber attacks.

It also said valuations of AI stocks had become "more stretched" amid concerns of a bubble. The Bank sounded a similar warning in December.