Rain in UK forecast for May bank holiday weekend but will it be a total washout?

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A woman wearing a coat and carrying a handbag holds a translucent umbrella as she walks on a tarmac path in the rain with grass and some shrubs in the background.Image source, PA Media

Ben Rich

Lead Weather Presenter

Rain is returning to the UK forecast this bank holiday weekend marking a big change in our weather prospects.

High pressure has dominated for much of meteorological spring - the months of March, April and May - bringing prolonged dryness and sunshine.

But now low pressure is making a return with the promise of wetter and windier conditions.

It will be welcome news for some, amid warnings that the UK is at medium risk of drought this summer.

However, it may put a dampener on outdoor plans over the weekend.

Spells of rain with sunny interludes

All areas of the UK will have rain at some point - but certainly not all the time.

In fact some of the heaviest rain will come overnight with weather fronts sweeping eastwards on both Friday and Saturday nights.

Saturday daytime will be breezy and cloudy in most areas with a little patchy rain especially over hills in the west, where mist and fog may also linger.

There will be brighter spells too with eastern Scotland expected to see the best of the sunshine.

It will feel warm with temperatures climbing into the low 20s Celsius - above the average for the time of year.

Three weather maps of the UK. They show mostly cloudy conditions on Saturday with some rain and temperatures of 11 to 21 Celsius. Sunday shows mainly dry and sunny weather in the south with showers in the north and temperatures of 12 to 19 Celsius. Monday shows many showers in the north and the west with cloud elsewhere and temperatures of 12 to 18 Celsius.

Image caption,

Parts of western Scotland could see 100mm (4 in) of rain over the next few days

Late on Saturday afternoon rain will arrive in Northern Ireland, Wales and south-west England, sweeping eastwards and affecting all areas overnight.

Sunday will be a day of sunny spells and showers.

Downpours will be most frequent in western Scotland, Northern Ireland and Northern England with hail and thunder possible.

However, there will be places in England and Wales that avoid the showers and stay dry.

It will be windy with the risk of gales in parts of northern Scotland - and strong winds will continue across many areas of the UK on Bank Holiday Monday.

There will be widespread showers and plenty of cloud but still some drier, sunnier moments.

Why the change - and will it last?

For most of spring the jet stream has steered rain-bearing weather systems away from our shores.

This has allowed high pressure to dominate in a so-called blocked weather pattern.

Two swans, accompanied by a flock of signets, sitting on a wall with a lake and trees in the background and a clear blue sky overhead.Image source, BBC Weather Watchers / Laura on a dog walk

Image caption,

High pressure meant these swans in Derbyshire could bask in warm sunshine

Over the last few days though that pattern has gradually been breaking down, allowing heavy, thundery downpours to affect some places in the UK.

Now that high pressure block is disappearing completely allowing the jet stream to send low pressure our way - just in time for the bank holiday weekend.

Beyond that the weather looks set to stay unsettled for the final week of May with further showers or longer spells of rain.

Some computer weather models suggest that high pressure may build at times allowing for more dry weather, especially in the south, with most of the downpours focused in northern regions, although a return to completely dry weather looks unlikely, even into the start of June.

You can always keep updated on your local forecast with BBC Weather online and on the app.

A dry and sunny spring

Rain over the next few days will not alter the fact that has been a dry, warm and sunny spring overall.

Provisional figures from the Met Office suggest that so far we are on track for one of the driest springs in more than a century - although this may change a little depending on how much rain we see in the next few days.

A tractor pulling equipment throws up clouds of dust as it drives through a field, with mountains and blue sky in the backgroundImage source, BBC Weather Watchers / Pia

Image caption,

Some places in eastern Scotland have had no rain for more than a month

However, authorities say it is unlikely to be enough to replenish river levels amid warnings of water scarcity and the risk of drought.

One thing that definitely will not change is how sunny it has been.

In fact Scotland and Northern Ireland have seen their sunniest springs on record.

For England, Wales and the UK as a whole it is currently the second sunniest with a number of further hours needed to move into first place.

The highest temperature recorded this spring was 29.3C (84.7F) at Kew Gardens in London on 1 May.

Statistics for the season overall are expected to be released by the Met Office in early June.

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