.png)
8 hours ago
2
I’m most looking forward to ...
Where to even begin? Victor Wembanyama, the brightest young star in the NBA, appears on the biggest stage imaginable (in this galaxy, at least ... I’m not sure how big the stages are where he comes from), while one of the most storied franchises in American sports has its return to relevance cemented. And, maybe most importantly of all, The Garden, baby! CDL
Watching what a Knicks team that has the best defensive net rating of the NBA playoffs can do when they play an elite opponent anchored by a generational talent. In other words, seeing them attempt to, not stop Wemby, but bring him down to a level below the god of all basketball gods. Their strategy to do something, anything, to postpone the crowning of the Frenchman for one more season is going to be fascinating. A lot of that responsibility will be in the capable hands of OG Anunoby, in what will be an incredibly stern challenge. DL
I’m excited to see the Knicks tested against the best possible competition. They’ve won 11 consecutive games, many by gaudy point differentials. They went up 72-22 on Atlanta on the Hawks’ home floor! But it’s one thing to embarrass a sixth seed, or the Cleveland Cavaliers, and another to look that good against the Spurs. Are these Knicks really one of the best teams ever, or has their competition flattered them? Let’s find out. OL
The Alien at the Garden. NBA stars have cemented their legacy on basketball’s biggest stage, and I expect Wembanyama’s first finals at Madison Square Garden to be theatrical. Game 3 will ignite a Super Bowl-like atmosphere on and off the court as premium ticket prices have skyrocketed to over $100,000 on the secondary market. AS
What the Spurs need to do to win …
Keep their composure, and not run out of gas. If San Antonio’s young core can be as mature, self-assured, and unbothered as they were in Game 7 on the road in Oklahoma, they’re a force to be reckoned with. But that bruising series against the Thunder presents problems: it’s yet to be seen if they have enough left in the tank to topple a red-hot Knicks team, who have been resting for a week plus. CDL
Slow down a Knicks team that dismantled three opponents on the way to the finals. The Knicks are playing total basketball - there’s no sticking wings in the corner and waiting for passes. The off-the-ball movement and distribution brought us the most dynamic offense we’ve seen in a while. San Antonio must drive the Knicks back into their regular season mode, where they failed to maximize their talent and were sometimes frustrating to watch. Cleveland did have some limited success with zone defense in the Eastern Conference finals; will San Antonio use it to try and shove these new Knicks back in the bottle? DL
Get everybody involved. Wembanyama’s Game 1 performance against the Thunder was astonishing, but tired him for the next couple games. In Game 7, seven Spurs scored in the double digits and the team shot 42.5% from three, which is a much healthier victory recipe. If Devin Vassell and Julian Champagnie hit from beyond the arc, De’Aaron Fox tears through the defense for short jumpers, and Stephon Castle distributes and defends at his best, the burden on Wembanyama will be manageable. OL
The youthful Spurs have avoided costly mistakes that often hinder young teams in the postseason. Defensively, they must minimize Jalen Brunson’s drives inside the paint, similar to how they stifled Shai Gilgeous-Alexander’s effectiveness in the Western Conference finals. If they replicate the same physicality, the Spurs can overwhelm the more seasoned Knicks. AS
What the Knicks need to do to win …
Exactly what they’ve been doing. The Knicks are in that weird, magical place teams sometimes get to where everything is falling into place. Role players are making every shot, bad habits are nowhere to be found, and their star, Brunson, is rising to the occasion. They have Team of Destiny energy, and cruised through the Eastern Conference. If they can step up against the San Antonio Spurs, the most formidable team they will face this postseason, they’ll take home the trophy. CDL
Exhaust San Antonio. The Spurs are coming off an incredibly physical series, so a lot of the work has already been done for them. The Knicks are deeper, fresher and with the exception of Mitchell Robinson, healthy. San Antonio are roughly seven deep; New York must force them to go deeper into their bench. Jalen Brunson is obviously the key to everything offensively for the Knicks, and in a way, so is Josh Hart, who the Spurs will dare to shoot, just as Cleveland did. DL
Contain and fatigue Wembanyama. The Thunder had success wrapping up the Spurs’ stick bug via Isaiah Hartenstein, who at times exhausted or restricted Wembanyama enough to take his rebounding out of games. The Knicks may be able to approximate the same strategy with Karl-Anthony Towns and Anunoby. Wembanyama will remain a constant scoring and blocking threat, but better to deal with his abilities in isolation than the full terrifying package. And don’t default to Brunson iso-ball until the shot clock weeps for relief at the expense of running the offense through Towns. OL
The Knicks hold an advantage in veteran leadership, role players, and established coaching. To win, the Knicks must force the young Spurs to become uncomfortable offensively. The Spurs tend to go on stretches where they force bad shots and rely heavily on three-pointers. If the Knicks pressure the Spurs to second-guess themselves, they’ll survive as champions. AS
This is the most exciting finals series since ...
At the risk of sounding hyperbolic, because last year’s finals between the fearless Indiana Pacers and the then-juggernaut Oklahoma City Thunder was a delight, I don’t think I’ve been this excited for an NBA finals since LeBron and Steph were going at it in the 2010s. There are storylines aplenty, star-power galore, and the backdrop of the Mecca as a cherry on top. CDL
Toronto v Golden State in 2019. That was interesting because the Warriors were favored, even after losing Kevin Durant. Kawhi Leonard was at the peak of his powers, as was Stephen Curry, but without Durant, Toronto won in six games. DL
The Thunder and Indiana Pacers last season. Sorry! The Pacers rode an unprecedented run of magical buzzer-beaters to the finals, where they made fascinating and modern music with the Thunder’s supersonic defense until Tyrese Haliburton’s achilles gave out. I’m not still mad about it. The Knicks are on a historic run and Wemby’s early presence in the finals is thrilling, but we’ll be lucky if the quality of the series itself equals that of last year. OL
Cavaliers v Warriors in 2016. LeBron James and Kyrie Irving led the Cavs to a historic comeback against Steph Curry and the Warriors during their dynasty era. This year’s finals could produce a more intriguing spectacle headlined by Wemby in Gotham; Brunson v. Stephon Castle; and celebrity row at the Garden. AS
Unheralded player to watch ...
I’m gonna cheat and do one for each squad. Anunoby feels like the key to the series in a lot of ways for New York: he’s been an excellent jump shooter in these playoffs, which has been important to the Knicks’ offense, but he’s also probably going to spend at least some time with the Wembanyama assignment. On the San Antonio side, Castle, the beyond-impressive guard, has shown remarkable poise in his first playoff outing, but guarding Brunson in the Garden will be perhaps his toughest test so far. CDL
It’s Hart, who has the best engine in the NBA. He’s capable of a triple-double with rebounding prowess that far exceeds his size. New Yorkers are familiar with his game, which is mostly to do a little bit of everything, but I don’t think the rest of the basketball world has an appreciation of what a wonderful all-around player he is. DL
Anunoby. The Knicks’ muscular forward has been one of their best players these playoffs, both offensively and defensively, and could defend Wemby on key possessions. But he’s also missed some playoff games with a hamstring strain, bringing unpleasant memories of Jalen Williams’ long absence to mind. Anunoby’s availability and efficacy are must-haves for the Knicks. OL
Dylan Harper. Throughout the playoffs, Harper has remained a steady hand for the Spurs off the bench by maintaining offensive control and hitting timely shots. Wembanyama, Brunson, Castle, and Towns will garner the most attention, but Harper could be the unsung hero during clutch moments in the fourth-quarter. AS
The finals MVP will be …
It’s likely that Brunson will never have to pay for anything in New York for the rest of his life; win, lose, or draw in these finals. But if he brings the Knicks their first title in over half a century, there will be Brunsons dining for free in the city that never sleeps for generations to come. CDL
Brunson, capping one of the most extraordinary rises in NBA history. This is a second-round pick who has been underestimated as a sluggish, undersized, shoot-first point guard. Even now, despite his showcase performance in the Knicks’ improbable Game 1 comeback over Cleveland in the Eastern Conference finals, he’s still in the long shadow of Wembanyama. But, thanks to some of the best footwork in NBA history, along with razor basketball instincts and shooting, elite leadership capabilities and timing, he will be MVP, and he will be the most celebrated New York City athlete of the 21st century so far. DL
Wembanyama. His performances affect the game on the defensive end in ways nobody else in this series can dream of, and he may already be the best offensive player on these teams, too. Unless fatigue ruins him or the Knicks find a nonexistent skeleton key to lock him up, look for Wembanyama to join former Spurs Tim Duncan and Kawhi Leonard in the club of 22-year-old finals MVPs. OL
There is only one player in the NBA finals who can dominate the game on every level. Wembanyama is the most unguardable force since Shaquille O’Neal in 2000, and his defensive presence in the paint will force the Knicks to make offensive adjustments. Once he asserts himself, expect Wemby to compile multiple video game-like stat lines on his way to securing the finals MVP.
Your winner will be ...
Knicks 4-2 Spurs. I’ll be the first to admit that I did not think the San Antonio Spurs would be this ahead of schedule. As impressed as I was with their first two rounds of play, I still thought they were a year away, and predicted that the conference finals were their ceiling. I stand corrected: they’re really, really good, and Wembanyama looks like the best player on Earth. But New York present a unique challenge, with far more ball handling and shot creation than the Spurs have faced thus far (they came up against an Oklahoma team missing two of their best in that department in Jalen Williams and Ajay Mitchell). The Knicks are on a heater the likes of which I’ve never seen in an NBA playoffs, and it’s been largely written off as the spoils of the weaker East. But they’re for real, and primed to play spoiler to the Spurs’ magical ride from lottery to finals. San Antonio will win at least one, if not several titles in the Wembanyama era. But this year, my money’s on the Knicks. CDL
Knicks 4-1 Spurs. The Knicks will frustrate Wemby, they will share the ball in a way the 1970s pass-first Knicks would relish. Towns will continue to unwind all the soft parts of his game. Anunoby will get to the basket with determined physicality. Mikal Bridges will slash and drain from mid-range. Brunson will take over down the stretch and Robinson, bad pinky and all, may even hit a few foul shots. As Nikola Jokić once said: “When is parade?” DL
Spurs 4-2 Knicks. A Knicks win won’t surprise – they fared well against the Spurs during the regular season, they’re fresher, and they’ve been more dominant in the playoffs – but Wembanyama is transcendent and his supporting cast fits perfectly around him. After watching San Antonio overcome the Thunder in Oklahoma City, it’s too hard to bet against them knocking off anybody else. OL
Spurs 4-3 Knicks. In our preseason predictions, I picked the Knicks to clinch an NBA finals berth, although I didn’t think they’d do it in such a dominant fashion. But the Knicks’ uncomplicated journey to the finals could be both a gift and a curse: after enduring a rigorous seven-game series against the defending champions, the Spurs are more battle-tested than New York. Their defensive discipline will halt the Knicks’ surging offense, and Wemby will be the series’ biggest X-factor. By the time the title is decided, it will be clear that the Wembanyama era has arrived. AS
