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Has this tournament been a success? Objectively yes, but since the incredible 2023 World Cup on Australian soil and resulting heightened expectations, the nuanced answer is not so straightforward.
Although the Matildas have struggled to sell out their matches, they will have attracted about 250,000 attenders over three weeks, and ticket sales for the tournament have beaten the previous Women’s Asian Cup record by a factor of five.
Organisers had to spread a tournament of only a handful of elite teams across three states in a compressed schedule, just as Australia’s sporting eyes were turned by the start of the AFL and NRL seasons, as well as the Formula One grand prix in Melbourne.
Japan XI
Japan start with the same XI that dispensed with South Korea in the semi-finals. Riko Ueki leads the line, and with six goals is one strike in front of Australia’s Alanna Kennedy in the race for the golden boot.
1 A. Yamashita, 4 S. Kumagai, 5 H. Takahashi, 6 T. Koga, 7 H. Miyazawa, 9 R. Ueki, 10 F. Nagano, 13 H. Kitagawa, 14 Y. Hasegawa, 15 A. Fujino, 17 M. Hamano
Substitutes: 2 R. Shimizu, 3 M. Minami, 8 K. Seike, 11 M. Tanaka, 12 C. Hirao, 16 Y. Yamamoto, 18 H. Hayashi, 19 M. Tanikawa, 20 M. Matsukubo, 21 M. Moriya, 23 A. Okuma, 24 Y. Narumiya, 25 R. Chiba, 26 M. Hijikata
Australia XI
Joe Montemurro has made one change to his starting XI with Wini Heatley coming in for Clare Hunt, as she did during the second-half of the semi-final against China. Montemurro is a big fan of Heatley’s ball-playing as a right-footed centre-half alongside the left-footed Steph Catley.
This is a team packed with experience. Five of Australia’s starting XI have earned more than 100 caps – and tonight Ellie Carpenter moves to 99. Only Heatley and Kaitlyn Torpey have fewer than 50. They will never be more ready.
But as Martin Pegan writes, despite Australia’s home advantage Japan deserve to start as clear favourites.
The world No 6 arrived at the tournament as the team to beat and have since cemented their place as the favourites across a near-flawless campaign.
Both coaches did their best to avoid favouritism during their pre-match press confereces.
“We are talking about a final in a major tournament. Both teams can win. They have 50% chance of winning,” Nils Nielsen said.
“There’s no favourites in the final, it’s the best team and the one who wants it more and the one who is smart enough to manage the moments,” added Joe Montemurro.
Jack Snape has been following the tournament since day one, and he sets the scene from Sydney.
Unless Kerr and co are embarrassed by Japan on Saturday in a match in Sydney expected to draw in excess of 70,000 fans, the tournament has at least helped repair the Matildas’ reputation after two unsettling years…Saturday also has them looking up for the first time since the 2023 World Cup, wondering again how high they might climb, and what future will be theirs.
Preamble
Jonathan Howcroft
Hello everybody and welcome to live coverage of Japan v Australia in the final of the 2026 AFC Women’s Asian Cup. Kick-off at Sydney’s Stadium Australia is 8pm AEDT.
This is the most consequential football match on Australian soil since Spain defeated England in the FIFA Women’s World Cup final almost three years ago. It is the most significant fixture involving an Australian national team since Ange Postecoglou led the Socceroos to continental glory in 2015. There has been no shortage of hype around this golden generation of Matildas and they finally have the chance to honour it with silverware.
The hosts will have the majority of a 60,000+ crowd behind them but they will enter the decider as underdogs. Japan have reached at least the semi-finals of every Asian Cup since 1986, winning two out of the past three titles. They haven’t lost a match in 90 minutes in the competition since 2010. That defeat came at the hands of eventual champions Australia. A 90th minute substitute that day: 16-year-old Samantha May Kerr.
A generation on, Kerr is the only surviving member of the class of 2010 and she will captain a side packed full of close friends that blossomed alongside each other into what could prove to be their defining battle.
I’ll be back with all the build up, team news, and insight from Stadium Australia shortly. If you want to join in during the evening, you can reach me at [email protected].
